Interest rate hikes: Has the time to apply brakes arrived?

The RBI interest rate policies despite evincing lots of interest have become predictable off-late. Given the fact that the last 13 revisions have resulted in rate hikes, there is an understandable gloom associated with it. Our personal loans are getting costlier, buying your dream home isn’t easy, budding entrepreneurs have seen the cost of capital head north etc. Before we discuss further, let’s first try to understand the rationale behind these rate hikes by RBI. 

The policy being referred to is “Monetary policy” by which the monetary authority of a country like RBI, controls the supply of money by controlling interest rates; monetary base and reserve requirements. The policies are designed keeping in mind, the rate of economic growth, inflation, unemployment or exchange rate. The current RBI policy also referred to as contractionary policies, seeks to address the high inflation levels in India by suppressing demand. The rationale is that higher interest rates would lead to less borrowing thereby reduced investments and demand for capital goods. In addition, higher interest rates will also lead to people saving more thereby reducing consumption i.e. demand.  

Seems logical and sound, isn’t it? It is, but empirically it has been established that monetary policies are effective in targeting price stability, exchange stability and financial stability in short term or at best medium term. The Reserve Bank has so far, hiked its key policy rates 13 times, totaling 350 basis points since March 2010 i.e. the hike has been continuing for more than 18 months.  

QE II and the recovery story: Is it time for austerity?

(The article was adjudged the best entry at Consilium – The Policy Design Competition at IIM Lucknow)

Quantitative Easing II better known as QE II has been globally the most  discussed phenomenon in the recent times. Through this mechanism the US Federal Reserve will buyback 600 bn US$ worth  of bonds, at about 75 bn US$ a month, and infuse newly created money in the system. The buyback follows the QE I that saw an infusion of 2 trn US$.

The step can lead to lowering of interest rates or yields in the US thus incentivizing investors to look for greener pastures abroad that provided greater returns. Considering the deflationary concerns in the US and the unusually high unemployment rate, “doing nothing” was not an option for the regulators. With Chinese not allowing Yuan to appreciate to the levels acceptable to the US, Fed through QE has taken it upon itself to undo the “trade imbalance”.  QE through lowering of interest rates aims at spurring demand as well as consumption. This will generate jobs as well as lead to appreciation of asset prices which have touched new lows thus leading to foreclosures and defaults. As far as global economy is concerned, even they can benefit through FII inflows.

Bonds and Bonding

Have you ever tried to find out what similarities do the financial instruments have with our day-to-day activities? Some might be wondering for the logic behind this question whereas some might say that it’s too obvious as the instruments are meant to take care of our day-to-day financial needs depending upon our incomes and risk taking capabilities. Let me put a more specific question; what are the similarities between Fixed Income instruments and relationships in real life? Before you start guessing let me simplify the task by defining the two terms. By fixed income instruments, I mean those financial instruments that help you earn low but fixed returns on your investments thereby reducing your risk. The most well known example is bond. On the other hand by relationships, I mean those existing between a boy and a girl or a man and a woman. I am counting out those arising out of family ties, friendships or those existing between same sexes. In better words let’s limit ourselves to those relations that might culminate into marriages.