Mr. Prime Minister, I will try my level best

A couple of hours ago, I happened to watch our Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh, address the nation. Given the spate of criticism faced by the government in the wake of corruptions and controversial reforms, the public at large felt an address to the nation was long due. Even his self-proclaimed “khamoshi” (silence) that was meant to save the “aabroo” (dignity) of the corruption laden nexus of corporates and politicians, wasn’t successful at all.

These are some of my observations from the PM’s address to the nation. Before you proceed, I would request you to either go through the text of the speech or the video so that we can have a more meaningful discussion.

Rupee Depreciation: There are lessons to be learnt

Rupee, our very own Indian currency, has witnessed a literal free fall especially in the past few weeks. The rupee slid 15.8% in 2011 and by 0.2% in the last week of 2011 to 53.065 per dollar in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. According to reports, this currency weakened the most in Asia this year. So, what has led to such weakening or should I say, depreciation of the rupee and what does it entail for the Indian economy? Let’s explore this interesting and crucial topic that has the potential to shape the future of Indian economy. After all, an appreciating currency makes a country's exports more expensive and imports cheaper in foreign markets whereas the reverse makes a country's exports cheaper i.e. more attractive and its imports more expensive in foreign markets. 

Interest rate hikes: Has the time to apply brakes arrived?

The RBI interest rate policies despite evincing lots of interest have become predictable off-late. Given the fact that the last 13 revisions have resulted in rate hikes, there is an understandable gloom associated with it. Our personal loans are getting costlier, buying your dream home isn’t easy, budding entrepreneurs have seen the cost of capital head north etc. Before we discuss further, let’s first try to understand the rationale behind these rate hikes by RBI. 

The policy being referred to is “Monetary policy” by which the monetary authority of a country like RBI, controls the supply of money by controlling interest rates; monetary base and reserve requirements. The policies are designed keeping in mind, the rate of economic growth, inflation, unemployment or exchange rate. The current RBI policy also referred to as contractionary policies, seeks to address the high inflation levels in India by suppressing demand. The rationale is that higher interest rates would lead to less borrowing thereby reduced investments and demand for capital goods. In addition, higher interest rates will also lead to people saving more thereby reducing consumption i.e. demand.  

Seems logical and sound, isn’t it? It is, but empirically it has been established that monetary policies are effective in targeting price stability, exchange stability and financial stability in short term or at best medium term. The Reserve Bank has so far, hiked its key policy rates 13 times, totaling 350 basis points since March 2010 i.e. the hike has been continuing for more than 18 months.