Interest rate hikes: Has the time to apply brakes arrived?

The RBI interest rate policies despite evincing lots of interest have become predictable off-late. Given the fact that the last 13 revisions have resulted in rate hikes, there is an understandable gloom associated with it. Our personal loans are getting costlier, buying your dream home isn’t easy, budding entrepreneurs have seen the cost of capital head north etc. Before we discuss further, let’s first try to understand the rationale behind these rate hikes by RBI. 

The policy being referred to is “Monetary policy” by which the monetary authority of a country like RBI, controls the supply of money by controlling interest rates; monetary base and reserve requirements. The policies are designed keeping in mind, the rate of economic growth, inflation, unemployment or exchange rate. The current RBI policy also referred to as contractionary policies, seeks to address the high inflation levels in India by suppressing demand. The rationale is that higher interest rates would lead to less borrowing thereby reduced investments and demand for capital goods. In addition, higher interest rates will also lead to people saving more thereby reducing consumption i.e. demand.  

Seems logical and sound, isn’t it? It is, but empirically it has been established that monetary policies are effective in targeting price stability, exchange stability and financial stability in short term or at best medium term. The Reserve Bank has so far, hiked its key policy rates 13 times, totaling 350 basis points since March 2010 i.e. the hike has been continuing for more than 18 months.  

QE II and the recovery story: Is it time for austerity?

(The article was adjudged the best entry at Consilium – The Policy Design Competition at IIM Lucknow)

Quantitative Easing II better known as QE II has been globally the most  discussed phenomenon in the recent times. Through this mechanism the US Federal Reserve will buyback 600 bn US$ worth  of bonds, at about 75 bn US$ a month, and infuse newly created money in the system. The buyback follows the QE I that saw an infusion of 2 trn US$.

The step can lead to lowering of interest rates or yields in the US thus incentivizing investors to look for greener pastures abroad that provided greater returns. Considering the deflationary concerns in the US and the unusually high unemployment rate, “doing nothing” was not an option for the regulators. With Chinese not allowing Yuan to appreciate to the levels acceptable to the US, Fed through QE has taken it upon itself to undo the “trade imbalance”.  QE through lowering of interest rates aims at spurring demand as well as consumption. This will generate jobs as well as lead to appreciation of asset prices which have touched new lows thus leading to foreclosures and defaults. As far as global economy is concerned, even they can benefit through FII inflows.

Public Offers made Public - IV

After introducing Public Offers in the first part, discussing some regulatory changes in primary markets in the second part, pros and cons of the 25% listing norms in the the third part, the fourth and the final part will focus on ASBA, another revolutionary change by SEBI.

ASBA or Application Supported by Blocked Amount is a new method introduced by SEBI for making investments in IPOs, Mutual Funds and NFOs. SEBI has tied up with self-certified syndicate banks which shall provide this facility.

Public Offers made Public - III

After introducing Public Offers in the first part and discussing some regulatory changes in primary markets in the second post, the third post will focus on the pros and cons of the recently proposed 25% listing norms.

On 4^th June 2010, the Ministry of Finance amended the Securities and Contract (Regulation) Rules, 1957 to set a limit of a minimum 25% public shareholding for initial public offers (listings) by companies on Indian stock exchanges as well as for continued listing.

Base Rate System : A change for the real ?

(My heartfelt thanks to Mr. G. C. Nath, Senior V.P., CCIL for his invaluable insights on this topic)

There hardly is an adult nowadays who hasn't felt the need or has gone ahead to avail a loan. You can blame it on the increasing consumerism or the inflationary forces. Anyways, I am not going to discuss the rate of inflation or conspicuous consumption rather I will focus on the rate of interest on these loans. These rates were affected by a major change that took place on the 1st of July, 2010. This happening was; "coming into effect of Base Rate System".This blog is on Base Rate System and its likely impacts.