Rupee Depreciation: There are lessons to be learnt

Rupee, our very own Indian currency, has witnessed a literal free fall especially in the past few weeks. The rupee slid 15.8% in 2011 and by 0.2% in the last week of 2011 to 53.065 per dollar in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. According to reports, this currency weakened the most in Asia this year. So, what has led to such weakening or should I say, depreciation of the rupee and what does it entail for the Indian economy? Let’s explore this interesting and crucial topic that has the potential to shape the future of Indian economy. After all, an appreciating currency makes a country's exports more expensive and imports cheaper in foreign markets whereas the reverse makes a country's exports cheaper i.e. more attractive and its imports more expensive in foreign markets. 

Double Dip: The likely impacts on India

In one of my previous blogs I wrote about why double dip was a possibility in the US? Now after the S&P downgrade of the US debt, it seems that the sentiments have really turned for the worse though fundamentally things haven’t changed a great deal. But what if the double dip materializes and what lies in store for India if US is engulfed by the economic crisis? Let’s discuss them. 

QE II and the recovery story: Is it time for austerity?

(The article was adjudged the best entry at Consilium – The Policy Design Competition at IIM Lucknow)

Quantitative Easing II better known as QE II has been globally the most  discussed phenomenon in the recent times. Through this mechanism the US Federal Reserve will buyback 600 bn US$ worth  of bonds, at about 75 bn US$ a month, and infuse newly created money in the system. The buyback follows the QE I that saw an infusion of 2 trn US$.

The step can lead to lowering of interest rates or yields in the US thus incentivizing investors to look for greener pastures abroad that provided greater returns. Considering the deflationary concerns in the US and the unusually high unemployment rate, “doing nothing” was not an option for the regulators. With Chinese not allowing Yuan to appreciate to the levels acceptable to the US, Fed through QE has taken it upon itself to undo the “trade imbalance”.  QE through lowering of interest rates aims at spurring demand as well as consumption. This will generate jobs as well as lead to appreciation of asset prices which have touched new lows thus leading to foreclosures and defaults. As far as global economy is concerned, even they can benefit through FII inflows.

Bonds and Bonding

Have you ever tried to find out what similarities do the financial instruments have with our day-to-day activities? Some might be wondering for the logic behind this question whereas some might say that it’s too obvious as the instruments are meant to take care of our day-to-day financial needs depending upon our incomes and risk taking capabilities. Let me put a more specific question; what are the similarities between Fixed Income instruments and relationships in real life? Before you start guessing let me simplify the task by defining the two terms. By fixed income instruments, I mean those financial instruments that help you earn low but fixed returns on your investments thereby reducing your risk. The most well known example is bond. On the other hand by relationships, I mean those existing between a boy and a girl or a man and a woman. I am counting out those arising out of family ties, friendships or those existing between same sexes. In better words let’s limit ourselves to those relations that might culminate into marriages.